On Aug. 24, the informal organization of the combined market economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — known as BRICS — made an annoucnement: On Jan. 1, 2024, the group will be expanding to include the countries of Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia and Argentina.
The announcement was made in Johannesburg, South Africa at the 15th annual BRICS summit. This was the group’s second expansion since its establishment; the first was in 2010 with the addition of South Africa. Combined, the states account for 40% of the global economy and over 25% of the world population, according to Al-Jazeera.
With the new addition of the six countries, the group’s total gross domestic product will be higher than the GDP of the G7 nations — Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States.
However, this increase in power is not a threat to their Western counterparts due to the neutrality of most countries that are a part of BRICS. Most countries that already have established ties to the West will not do anything to purposefully harm that relationship.
Saudi Arabia, for example, needs foreign support from the East and the West since they are a top exporter of crude oil. Ethiopia received $1.8 billion in humanitarian aid from the United States in 2022 according to AP News and $331 million in 2023 according to the U.S. Agency for International Development.
Besides trade, the countries of Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt rely on the United States for their safety that wouldn’t be guaranteed by an allegiance to China, according to Foreign Policy. Saudi Arabia, for example, gives America access to their oil reserves and receives in return defense against Iran, according to the New York Times.
Every country has its own reason for wanting to join; there is not one general driving force. There are shared reasons — for example, joining BRICS would give a country access to the bloc’s New Development Bank if they can not get a loan from the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank. For most countries, being added to the club would mean having allies on both sides.
Professor of Economics Stephen Onyeiwu described BRICS as a “hand-waving movement of the ‘global south’ that reminds people that we also exist” and is, “just like the Non-Aligned Movement of the ’60s and ’70s where people did not want to be on one side of the Cold War, they wanted to be neutral.”
Onyeiwu also noted the mismatch of countries in the forum, “What is UAE going to buy from South Africa? From Ethiopia?” he said. “Russia and China have the most to gain and want to say, ‘Hey! We also have our own allies!’ They have more to gain than other countries.”
He added that a country’s interest in BRICS is not necessarily what it could get from other countries, especially since enemies like Egypt and Ethiopia or Saudi Arabia and Iran will share a stage.
When feuding countries are part of the same organization, it will lead to conflicts since, “their interests are too diffused and often quite at conflict with one another,” Onyiewu said. There are common main interests like the New Development Bank, but that is not enough to have a cohesive group, he added
These countries invited to join BRICS still maintain a relationship with the west. They are not exclusively dealing with Russia and China. So, the formation is not capable of having a counterweight to the G7. The countries join to gain more allies. They have friends in the west and in the east. Further, if a country can not take a loan out from the IMF or the World Bank, they can take a loan out from the New Development Bank which was founded by the BRICS states. Countries are not losing by joining and really only have something to gain.
It is not likely that superpowers like Russia and China will achieve their goal to be a counterweight to the G7 because BRICS is not likely to accomplish much. One major goal is to conduct trade through local currency rather than the American dollar but Onyeiwu believes, “that there could be a slight move towards not using American dollars, but it will not be to the scale of reducing the influence of the U.S. dollar.”
“The U.S. dollar is going to continue to be dominant because the BRICS countries have a lot of business, economic transactions with the West,” he added.
For the global south to have equal footing with the West, the countries would have to reduce their interactions with the West. Seeing as that remains to be a difficult task for any country since the United States is a major importer of many resources, the BRICS group is defined by a yearly meeting and not by its accomplishments.
“The annual summit is just a clinking of champagne glasses and talking,” Onyeiwu said. “In the future, there will likely be more expansion since more and more countries are applying to be included, but it is not anything to take seriously in countering the West.”